Where does next-token prediction leave us?

Summary

Solved/Cooked AI maximalists in some corners of the internet hate it when people refer to LLMs as just “next-token predictors” or “stochastic parrots”. It is instinctively taken as a pejorative. They use the words “solved” or “cooked” to signal the end of industries or classes of work that take real human creativity, expertise or effort. “Animation is solved”, “Hollywood is cooked”, “coding is solved”, “postgrad students are cooked” and so forth. It is far from a neutral description of progress, there is a certain glee to it. They celebrate the obsolescence. There is a belligerence in discussions and it is starkly reminiscent of people taking political sides online. I cannot think of any other piece of technology that comes close to this level of tribalism. Hmm, maybe cryptocurrency? Arch Linux users? Not even close. These are extreme examples. I had to put this on top, because from where I stand, I feel like the same people cheering now are the same people being economically priced out of this. Why? Machines that can think have been an important trope in our collective and literary fiction for so long. It was always a question of when and not if and the graph of when and what is going parabolic. I feel there is something primal underneath it: the hubris of creation, playing God, intelligence squeezed out of sand. So, what makes a fanatical proponent? Why do they seemingly have contempt towards human ingenuity and labour? Do they have an overly optimistic view of living off of universal basic income, spending all their time in leisure while the machines subsonically hum away at work that could end up being considered beneath humanity? We cannot and obviously should not generalise these things. But lately I’ve been thinking if it is just a class issue? This cohort of people likely have a cushion that softens the concussive blows they are doling out right now. They perhaps have the luxury of a somewhat functioning government and a social safety net that they are witne...