6G: The next gen of wireless tech nobody's ready to pay for

Summary

Networks 6G: The next gen of wireless tech nobody's ready to pay for Standards body on track for 2028 specs drop. Telcos on track for 2028 existential crisis about 5G ROI The first 6G deployments could arrive in 2029, with the US and South Korea likely leading early adoption, according to Juniper Research, Juniper forecasts 3GPP (Third Generation Partnership Project) will publish the first 6G technical specifications by 2028, with global connections reaching 4.6 million at launch in 2029 and climbing to 2.9 billion by 2035. The Far East and China are expected to account for nearly three-quarters of connections by 2030, followed by North America, with Western Europe a distant third. Don't hold your breath if you're in the UK, though, where the mobile networks are still struggling to deliver a satisfactory 5G service. Nations that led 5G rollouts will lead 6G too, we're told. 6G technology is still in the global research and standardization phase, but experts we asked agreed it may be ready in a couple of years – though the markets for it may not."A good comparison point would be the uptake of 5G at the end of 2020," CCS Insight research analyst Joe Gardiner told The Register. "I believe the GSMA found there were 234 million connections globally at the end of 2020. Therefore, the forecast of 290 million connections globally by the end of 2030 seems reasonable, given population growth and growing digitalization, particularly in Asia."There may be a slower rollout of 6G, he added. "Given the difficulty that some operators have found in monetizing 5G, they may not be interested in investing in 6G unless clear use cases are established. Use cases, therefore, may be focused more on enterprise or military applications initially; and there could be a slower rollout to consumer networks."PP Foresight analyst and founder Paolo Pescatore agreed, telling us: "The telcos are not even thinking of 6G in their current roadmaps, as it is an unwanted distraction. Significantly, they a...