AI isn't killing jobs, it's 'unbundling' them into lower-paid chunks

Summary

AI isn't killing jobs wholesale – it's quietly chipping away at them, one task at a time. That's the gist of a new research paper making the rounds, which pushes back on the idea that more AI exposure automatically means fewer jobs. The authors argue the real question isn't how many tasks a model can do, but whether those tasks can actually be split out without breaking the role. Microsoft execs worry AI will eat entry level coding jobs READ MORE Analysts have long warned that automation could wipe out millions of jobs. One recent forecast put the number at 10.4 million US jobs gone by 2030, roughly 6 percent of the workforce. The implicit assumption behind those numbers is straightforward: if AI can do enough of what you do, you're toast. This new paper – written by Luis Garicano, professor at the London School of Economics, along with Jin Li and Yanhui Wu, both at the University of Hong Kong – suggests it's not that simple. Jobs, it argues, aren't neat lists of tasks – they're bundles. Radiologists, for example, don't just read scans. They interpret edge cases, talk to clinicians, and sign off on decisions people act on. Replace the image-reading bit, and you haven't necessarily replaced the job. That's where the authors draw the line between what they call "weak bundles" and "strong bundles." Weak ones can be split apart without much fuss, but strong ones can't without losing value. "In weak-bundle occupations, AI automates some tasks and narrows the boundary of the job… In strong-bundle occupations… AI improves performance inside the job, but does not remove the human from the bundle," the authors argue. In weak-bundle jobs – think churning through support tickets or knocking out predictable bits of code – AI doesn't just replace a task; it reshapes the job. The human is left doing whatever the machine can't, often a narrower slice of the original role. Sounds like a win on paper. In reality, not so much. Once AI takes over part of the work, the human stops divi...