A prediction market user made $436,000 betting on Maduro's downfall

Summary

A prediction market user made $436,000 betting on Maduro's downfallDanielle Kaye and Natalie ShermanBusiness reporters, New YorkLightRocket via Getty ImagesIn this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone.A bettor made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Venezuela's president just before it was officially announced, raising questions about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the US operation.Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the end of January rose in the hours before President Donald Trump announced on Saturday the Venezuelan leader had been seized.One account, which joined the platform last month and took four positions, all on Venezuela, made more than $436,000 (£322,000) from a $32,537 bet.It remains unclear who placed the bet. The anonymous account had a blockchain identifier of letters and numbers.Polymarket data shows traders put the odds of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the afternoon of Friday 2 January. But the odds had jumped to 11% by shortly before midnight and surged in the early hours of 3 January, indicating a sudden change in positions just before Trump posted on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody.Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Dennis Kelleher, CEO of Better Markets, a non-partisan group that advocates for financial reform, told the BBC's US partner CBS: "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information." A handful of other Polymarket users also made tens of thousands of dollars from wagers on Maduro's capture.Some lawmakers are starting to take note.Congressman Ritchie Torres, a Democrat from New York, introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from making trades on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet.Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the US in recent years, with companies like Pol...